T20 Chase Maths: Win % by Runs Needed Off the Last Five Overs
Across 5,629 live T20 chases, the runs needed after 15 overs tells you a lot. Wickets in hand and the era you're in tell you the rest.
Fifteen overs gone, the chase is alive, and the market is twitching on every ball. I wanted a clean answer to an old question: with 30 balls left, how often does the chasing side actually get there? So I took 5,629 full-length men's T20 chases that were still live after 15 overs. Overall, the chasing side won 48.4% of them.
That overall figure is close to a coin flip, but it hides a very sharp curve. Needing 31-40, chasers won 85.5% of the time. Needing 41-50, that fell to 63.6%, and needing 51-60 it dropped to 34.5%. Wickets down and the modern scoring era both bend that curve hard, and this is the base I work from when I'm building my free cricket predictions page.
Period 1Every extra ten runs needed costs the chase heavily
This table pools every alive chase, all wickets included, and turns the win rate into a fair price with no margin. At the easy end, needing 1-20 was won 99.6% of the time across 498 matches, a fair price of 1.00. Needing 21-30, the chase won 96.3%, so that's still very nearly done.
The action is in the middle bands. Needing 41-50, chasers won 63.6% across 916 matches, a fair price of 1.57. Needing 51-60, the rate falls to 34.5% and the fair price drifts to 2.89. By 61-70 needed it is 14.0%, and at 71 or more, just 2.2% across 1,248 matches.
| Runs needed off 30 balls | Matches | Chase won | 95% range | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-20 | 498 | 99.6% | ยฑ0.6 | 1.00 |
| 21-30 | 568 | 96.3% | ยฑ1.6 | 1.04 |
| 31-40 | 778 | 85.5% | ยฑ2.5 | 1.17 |
| 41-50 | 916 | 63.6% | ยฑ3.1 | 1.57 |
| 51-60 | 880 | 34.5% | ยฑ3.1 | 2.89 |
| 61-70 | 741 | 14.0% | ยฑ2.5 | 7.12 |
| 71+ | 1,248 | 2.2% | ยฑ0.8 | 46.22 |
What I take from this is that the 41-60 zone is where the live market has to make its sharpest calls. The 95% range is ยฑ3.1 in both of those bands, so the price there is reasonably well pinned down. That's exactly why a bookmaker drifting too far either side of 1.57 or 2.89 catches my eye.
Period 2Wickets in hand can swing a chase by a third
Runs needed is only half the equation, and this grid splits it by wickets down. Needing 41-50 with 0-2 down, the chase won 80.3% across 198 matches. With 5-6 down, the same requirement was won only 47.8% across 224. Same runs, same balls, very different match.
The pattern holds right across the board. Needing 31-40 with 3-4 down, chasers won 86.7%, but with 5-6 down that fell to 72.0%. Needing 51-60 with 0-2 down, the chase still won 63.0%, while with 3-4 down it was 44.3%. With 3-4 down and 61-70 needed, it dropped to 22.9%.
4,901 chases alive after 15 overs with 0-6 down. 2 of 21 cells have under 30 matches; the 728 chases 7-9 down are left out (mostly tiny cells).
View the data: chase win % with five overs left
| 1-20 | 21-30 | 31-40 | 41-50 | 51-60 | 61-70 | 71+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-2 down | 100% | 98.6% | 94.8% | 80.3% | 63.0% | 28.6% | 11.1% |
| 3-4 down | 100% | 96.8% | 86.7% | 67.8% | 44.3% | 22.9% | 6.5% |
| 5-6 down | 100% | 93.0% | 72.0% | 47.8% | 22.3% | 9.6% | 1.7% |
My read is that a score of 'needs 50 off 30' on its own tells you almost nothing. Two cells at the very high run needs with few wickets down rest on small samples, so treat those as rough. The grid also can't see who is actually at the crease, what bowling is left or how big the boundaries are, and that's the main limit on everything here.
Period 3Modern chasers win the middle equations far more often
Here I split the same equation by era, comparing 2010-2019 with 2023 onward. Needing 41-50, chasers won 58.5% in the earlier decade and 71.4% from 2023. That is a big move, and it comes in the band where the market is most finely balanced.
Needing 51-60, the rate climbed from 31.3% to 38.5%, and needing 61-70 it rose from 11.4% to 16.7%. At the easy end very little changed. Needing 21-30, it went from 95.5% to 97.5%, because there was hardly any room left to improve.
View the data: the same equation, then and now
| 2010-2019 | 2023-2026 | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-20 needed (209 / 172 matches) | 100% | 99.4% |
| 21-30 needed (243 / 197 matches) | 95.5% | 97.5% |
| 31-40 needed (336 / 246 matches) | 83.9% | 89.4% |
| 41-50 needed (426 / 287 matches) | 58.5% | 71.4% |
| 51-60 needed (380 / 291 matches) | 31.3% | 38.5% |
| 61-70 needed (316 / 228 matches) | 11.4% | 16.7% |
This is the chart I'd lean on most. Batting depth and death-overs hitting have pushed the difficult chases towards gettable. If your gut feel for these equations was formed watching cricket from the last decade, it is probably too pessimistic about the chasing side.
Full-time verdict
Start from the all-wickets fair price, such as 1.57 needing 41-50 or 2.89 needing 51-60. Then adjust from there rather than reacting to the scoreboard noise.
Needing 41-50, the chase won 80.3% with 0-2 down but only 47.8% with 5-6 down. Always read the wickets column before you read the runs.
From 2023 onward, chasers needing 41-50 won 71.4% against 58.5% in 2010-2019. Weight recent seasons more heavily when you price a live chase.
Questions bettors ask
What are the chances of chasing 50 off the last five overs in T20?
Across 916 men's T20 chases needing 41-50 off 30 balls, the chasing side won 63.6%, a fair price of 1.57. With 0-2 down, that rose to 80.3%.
How often do T20 teams chase 60 off the last 30 balls?
Needing 51-60 with five overs left, chasers won 34.5% of 880 matches, a fair price of 2.89. Needing 61-70, it fell to 14.0%.
Are T20 chases easier to win now than they used to be?
In the middle bands, yes. Needing 41-50, chasers won 58.5% in 2010-2019 and 71.4% from 2023 onward, and needing 51-60 the rate rose from 31.3% to 38.5%.
I'm Jack Thompson, and I write the cricket match predictions at correct-score.vip โ covering Tests, ODIs and T20s with an eye on conditions as much as form.
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