How Many Games Does the Loser Win? Tennis Blowouts by Price
How many games does the beaten player actually take? Across both tours, the answer depends heavily on the favourite's closing price, the tour and the surface underfoot.
Every tennis match has a loser, and the loser almost always wins something. I wanted to know how much. This study covers 101,421 best-of-3 tour-level matches. In ATP matches the loser won 9.3 games on average, with a median of 9. In WTA matches the loser won 8.2, with a median of 8. Those figures sound close, but the gap between them shapes the whole study.
If you arrived from my tennis tips for today page looking for context on games markets, the headline is this. Routs are a WTA feature far more than an ATP one, and they become much more frequent once the favourite is priced very short. Under 1.15, the loser finished on 0-4 games in 29.7% of matches. One caution before the charts: games markets are usually quoted on a named player rather than on "the loser", so these figures describe the shape of results, not a ready-made line.
Period 1WTA routs land about twice as often as ATP
This table counts how often the loser finished on each total from zero to four games. The final row groups them together. On the ATP side, the loser won 4 games or fewer in 10.2% of best-of-3 matches. On the WTA side, the figure was 19.6%, roughly twice as often.
The extreme row is the 6-0 6-0 double bagel. It ended 0.4% of WTA matches (173 of them) against 0.1% of ATP best-of-3 matches, which is just 40 in total. One more example of the gap: the loser won exactly 3 games in 3.2% of ATP matches and 6.1% of WTA matches.
| Loser games | ATP matches | ATP share | ATP fair odds | WTA matches | WTA share | WTA fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 (6-0 6-0) | 40 | 0.1% | 1393.83 | 173 | 0.4% | 263.98 |
| 1 | 288 | 0.5% | 193.59 | 675 | 1.5% | 67.66 |
| 2 | 768 | 1.4% | 72.60 | 1,549 | 3.4% | 29.48 |
| 3 | 1,764 | 3.2% | 31.61 | 2,779 | 6.1% | 16.43 |
| 4 | 2,808 | 5.0% | 19.86 | 3,787 | 8.3% | 12.06 |
| 4 or fewer | 5,668 | 10.2% | 9.84 | 8,963 | 19.6% | 5.10 |
ATP 55,753 matches, WTA 45,668 matches.
The fair odds column is where a bettor should look. A WTA loser on 4 games or fewer carries fair odds of 5.10, against 9.84 for the ATP. If a price on a lopsided women's scoreline looks generous because it feels unlikely, check it against that difference first. Serve holds more in the men's game, and that alone keeps ATP losers on the board.
Period 2Shorter favourites push the loser toward four games or fewer
Here every match is split by the favourite's closing price, and the loser's games are grouped into four bands. The pattern is steady. With a favourite under 1.15, the loser won 0-4 games in 29.7% of matches and 11 or more in only 18.2%. At 1.90-2.00 the picture flips: 0-4 games fell to 10.2% and 11 or more rose to 39.9%.
Matches per band: 8,042 / 14,855 / 21,953 / 20,535 / 14,771 / 2,457.
View the data: games won by the match loser, by price
| 0-4 games | 5-7 games | 8-10 games | 11+ games | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.15 | 29.7% | 33.3% | 18.9% | 18.2% |
| 1.15-1.29 | 18.0% | 30.9% | 22.7% | 28.4% |
| 1.30-1.49 | 13.0% | 28.8% | 24.4% | 33.7% |
| 1.50-1.69 | 11.5% | 27.1% | 25.4% | 35.9% |
| 1.70-1.89 | 11.0% | 27.1% | 25.0% | 36.9% |
| 1.90-2.00 | 10.2% | 25.8% | 24.1% | 39.9% |
The middle of the chart deserves attention too. At 1.30-1.49 the loser won 5-7 games in 28.8% of matches and 8-10 in 24.4%. That is a wide spread of outcomes. Even a clear favourite in that range does not reliably produce a thrashing, and I would not price one as if it does.
Period 3Upsets are tighter than favourite wins at every price
This chart splits each price band by who won and shows the average games the loser took. When a favourite under 1.15 won, the underdog took 6.6 games on average. When that favourite was beaten, across 629 upsets, the losing favourite still took 10.8. Heavy favourites rarely go out quietly. Their defeats tend to be long, grinding affairs, often with a tie-break or a deciding set.
View the data: how close the loser gets: favourite vs underdog wins
| Favourite won | Underdog won | |
|---|---|---|
| Under 1.15 (629 upsets) | 6.6 games | 10.8 games |
| 1.15-1.29 (2,847 upsets) | 7.8 games | 10.3 games |
| 1.30-1.49 (6,333 upsets) | 8.4 games | 10.1 games |
| 1.50-1.69 (7,985 upsets) | 8.9 games | 9.7 games |
| 1.70-1.89 (6,836 upsets) | 9.1 games | 9.5 games |
| 1.90-2.00 (1,199 upsets) | 9.3 games | 9.6 games |
The two markers converge as the price lengthens. At 1.90-2.00 the loser averaged 9.3 games when the favourite won and 9.6 when the underdog won, which is almost no difference. At 1.30-1.49 the gap was still clear: 10.1 games for a beaten favourite against 8.4 for a beaten underdog. To me, that is the best-of-three caution in numbers. A single tight set can turn the match, but it rarely turns it into a rout.
Period 4WTA clay hosts the most routs, ATP grass the fewest
Finally, surface. The bars show the share of matches in which the loser won 4 games or fewer. WTA clay leads at 20.5%. ATP grass is lowest at 7.2%, which fits a surface where serve dominates and breaks are scarce. On hard courts the tour gap is stark: 9.3% for the ATP against 19.8% for the WTA.
Matches: 30,721 / 18,847 / 4,566 / 27,641 / 12,732 / 5,104.
View the data: blowouts by tour and surface
| Share of best-of-3 matches where the loser won 4 games or fewer | |
|---|---|
| ATP hard | 9.3% |
| ATP clay | 12.4% |
| ATP grass | 7.2% |
| WTA hard | 19.8% |
| WTA clay | 20.5% |
| WTA grass | 16.5% |
What surprised me is how little surface moves the WTA figures compared with tour. WTA grass, at 16.5%, still produces far more routs than ATP clay at 12.4%. In a blowout question, the tour matters first and the surface second. This is historical tour-level data, not a system, and past frequencies guarantee nothing about the next match.
Full-time verdict
Before weighing a lopsided scoreline, check which tour you are on. A loser on 4 games or fewer has fair odds of 5.10 in WTA matches against 9.84 in ATP ones.
If you fancy an upset of a very short favourite, expect a close match rather than a rout. Beaten favourites under 1.15 still averaged 10.8 games.
Lower your expectations of a thrashing on grass, especially in men's tennis. ATP grass produced the fewest blowouts in the study, at 7.2%.
Questions bettors ask
How many games does the loser win in a best-of-3 tennis match?
On average, an ATP best-of-3 loser won 9.3 games (median 9), and a WTA loser won 8.2 (median 8). Those figures come from tour-level singles with full set scores.
How often does a WTA match end 6-0 6-0?
A double bagel ended 0.4% of WTA best-of-3 matches, 173 in total, which gives fair odds of 263.98. On the ATP side it happened in just 0.1% of best-of-3 matches.
Does a short-priced favourite usually win in a blowout?
More often than at other prices, but not usually. With a favourite under 1.15, the loser won 0-4 games in 29.7% of matches, so most of those matches were not routs.
I'm Oliver Hughes, based in London, and I write the tennis match analysis at correct-score.vip โ where surface, form and scheduling matter more than rankings.
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